希腊 Talks and FOMC Meeting Key This Week

It should be a very interesting week in the financial markets as 希腊 continues to try and negotiate a palatable bailout with its creditors, while in the U.S. the 美联储 eral Reserve will announce its latest monetary policy decision along with its latest economic projections.

These two events are so important for the markets and could trigger some huge moves in the markets this week. 希腊 may 上 ly be a small country but if a bailout deal cannot be agreed, it could be very damaging for the 欧元区 and the rippling effect would harm those countries outside of the region as well.

There has been very little progress in the negotiations for some time now and the deadline for 希腊 is fast approaching. It needs to repay €1.6 billion to the 国际货币基金组织 在 the end of the month while another €1.5 billion is due in public sector wages and pensions and it is believed that it cannot do so without the bailout funds.

希腊’s Prime Minister 亚历克西斯·齐普拉斯 has suggested that he may be willing to compromise 上 some of the key sticking points if the country’s creditors agree to some form of debt relief, which could be seen as a sign that we’re finally going to see compromises being made. However, I cannot envisage 希腊’s creditors agreeing to debt forgiveness while the country is still participating in a bailout. At most, they may commit to discussing it 上 ce 希腊 has completed the bailout and implemented all of the reforms demanded by the institutions in exchange for the bailout.

It is believed that 希腊 has until the eurogroup meeting 上 Thursday to agree 上 a deal or the risk of default grows enormously. It takes time for any deal to pass through parliaments and therefore any deal beyond 18 June meeting may delay payments being made to 希腊 to beyond the end of the month.

本周的另一个关键事件是美联储会议,虽然现在很少有人预计在周三的会议上加息,但有很大的暗示可能会在9月到来,这可能引发市场进一步动荡。尽管今年开局缓慢,但数据仍在改善,我们现在看到工资和支出都在增长,如果通胀在预测期内达到美联储的目标,这是必要的。

我认为这些预测将显示这种情况的发生,而点状图将进一步显示对9月加息的支持。在本月的决定中,还将与主席珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)举行的新闻发布会相伴,在此期间,她将受到来自记者的疑问的轰炸,这些记者试图对何时首次加息进行深入了解。我希望这是一个非常受关注的活动。

今天在经济数据方面没有太多应有的事情,但我们将听到马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的讲话,他将在布鲁塞尔欧洲议会经济和货币事务委员会作证。德拉吉可能会受到欧洲央行债券购买计划,其有效性和寿命以及ELA计划的压力,并且可能在什么时候停止支持希腊银行。鉴于最近通货膨胀加剧以及对利率预期的影响,债券市场动荡不定,这可能引起人们的兴趣。

富时指数有望低开43点,CAC低30点,而DAX低72点。

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克雷格·埃兰(Craig Erlam)

克雷格·埃兰(Craig Erlam)

高级市场分析师-英国和EMEA 万达
克雷格·埃兰(Craig Erlam)总部位于伦敦,于2015年加入OANDA,担任市场分析师。作为金融市场分析师和交易员,他拥有多年的经验,在撰写宏观经济评论的同时,他专注于基础分析和技术分析。 他的观点已发表在《金融时报》,《路透社》,《电讯报》和《国际商业时报》上,他还经常在BBC,彭博电视台,FOX Business和BNN上担任客座评论员。 Craig拥有技术分析师协会的正式会员资格,并被国际技术分析师联合会认可为认证金融技术员。
克雷格·埃兰(Craig Erlam)
克雷格·埃兰(Craig Erlam)

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